Public Forecast Discussion

»...SYNOPSIS...«

FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTED AREA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THAT COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AT 7 AM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, THEN NORTHERLY ON MONDAY. WINDS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT 5-10 MPH. ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE IN SOME AREAS BEING THE MOST EFFECTED BY THESE STORMS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT, THEN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 80S, THEN LOWER INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S, THEN REACH THEIR CLIMAX IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE AREA. ON SUNDAY EVENING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER DUE TO THE STRONG CAP EXPECTED KEEPING THE CONDITIONS MOSTLY STABILIZED THORUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT CAN HELP OVERCOME SOME OF THE STABILITY THROUGH ITS WEAK FORCING AND PROVIDE SOME MINOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS WITH SOME POSSBILE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE ALL ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG IN SOME AREAS TOO WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN THE REGION.

»...NEAR TERM...

FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO DOMINATE THE REGION AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONG AT THE SURFACE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME POSSIBLE MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT UNTIL 7 AM ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE WARM INCREASED CLOUD DEPTHS, THE HIGH MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, INCREASED SURFACE BASED CAPE, THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG THE SHORTWAVE BOUNDARY, AND THE STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP STORMS STRONG AND HEALTHY TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT EVEN AFTER DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES THAT WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING STORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE COULD PRODUCE SOME BOW ECHO STRUCTURES THIS EVENING AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE SLIM AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE PASSING OVERNIGHT STORMS. SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. ON SUNDAY MORNING, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. EXPECT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING ALL AT 5-10 MPH. ANY STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AND CAUSE MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

»...SHORT TERM...

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SHORTLY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT INTO THE MID 80S. EXPECT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN SHIFT IN A NORTHERLY PATTERN ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. ON SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE DUE TO THE SOME STRONGER CAPPING . HOWEVER, THE MINOR INSTABILITY FROM THE SURFACE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CAN HELP OVERCOME THAT STABILITY SOME AND PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING UPON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE BASED CAPE BECOMES AND IF LAPSE RATES INCREASE OVER TIME ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, SOME POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S WITH INCREASED PRECIPIATBLE WATER VALUES ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE MINOR INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN REACH THEIR CLIMAX IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

OVERALL, EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO LINGER IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS NEAR FLOOD PRONE ZONES AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AS WE ARE CURRENTLY UNER A FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT UNTIL 7 AM ON SUNDAY. THE INCREASED SURFACED BASED CAPE, INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVECTION, THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, INCREASED WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, STORMS OVERALL MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN SOME AREAS, SOME DAMAGING MARGINAL WINDS WITH BOW ECHO POTENTIAL THAT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE IN CHANCES OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT, AND WEAK SPINUP TORNADOES MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING THAT WILL DECREASE QUICKLY IN POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE AND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY EVENING, A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE DUE TO THE STRONG CAPPING ABOVE. HOWEVER, THE INCREASING SURFACE BASED CAPE, LOW LEVEL CONCTION, LOW LEVEL SHEAR, INCREASE LOW TO DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE, AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STABILITY TO DESTABILIZE AND ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES. WINDS COULD GUST UP 20 MPH AND CAUSE SOME MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE IN SOME AREAS. STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL TAPER OFF EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AND REMAIN THROUGHOUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, THEN SHIFT NORTH ON MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALL AT 5-10 MPH. ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORMS PASS THROUGH WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND AS THE MOSITURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY MORNING, THEN INCREASE INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOWER INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN MAX OUT INTO THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

»...LONG TERM...

ON MONDAY EVENING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH COOLER CONDTIONS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 5-10 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THESE NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING. ON TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, THEN MAX OUT INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM HIGHER THAN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY EVENING, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. 

OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALL THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESURE PERSISTS AND AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING ON TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN THE FORECASTED AREA ON MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, THEN MAX OUT INTO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.