...SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE ITCZ. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAS BECOME OUR PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MDR WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS AND MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE BY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC REMAINS UNSETTLED. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

#1. - AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CONDUCIVE AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

...PROBABILITY OF FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS...LOW....10%
...PROBABILITY OF FORMATION WITHIN 120 HOURS....MODERATE....60%

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR 32W, EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 4N TO 11N AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWST HAT THERE ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA BY LATE NEXT WEEK. 

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR 46W, EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 3N TO 11N OR ABOUT 1400 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE ITCZ AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 64W, EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 5N TO 11N AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE ITCZ AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 

...CARIBBEAN...

06Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR CARTAGENA, COLOMBIA THAT IS PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A QUIET CARIBBEAN FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC.../

06Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW A 1022 MILLIBAR AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION W/ A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE S/SW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC DOWN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE WHERE AN ARE AOF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED IN SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED AT ABOUT 35N/35W WAS ALSO PRODUCING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

...EASTERN ATLANTIC...

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MULTIPLE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RIDING ALONG THE ITCZ. THERE IS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. AS THIS AREA MOVES TOWARD THE WEST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. (SEE "SPECIAL FEATURES" FOR MORE INFORMATION)

...GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROF NEAR THE BAY OC CAMPECHE WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN. OUTSIDE OF THIS FEATURE, THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET. 

...NORTH ATLANTIC...

MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OVER THE COMING DAYS, ALLOWING FOR DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH SURF IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WILL IMPACT NUMEROUS SHIPPING ROUTES ALONG THE NORTH ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTs WILL HAMPER ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, BUT MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.