Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING CONTINUED CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND A DRYLINE SHARPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY AS SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.

AS FORCING INCREASES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS, WHILE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE.

...EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND TRIPLE POINT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ANY LOCALLY BACKED FLOW REGIMES. INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD FAVOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE CLUSTERED WITH TIME.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS.

SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AS PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL FAVOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND ACCELERATED DOWNDRAFTS...RESULTING IN A RISK FOR DRY MICROBURSTS.

...LOWER MS/MID MS VALLEYS...
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE REGION MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS SUCH...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WITH ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW...UNLESS THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.