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Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Discussion

USA Weather — Tropical Weather Division

Updated
1 year, 8 months ago (Oct 7, 2024 - 9:10 PM EDT)
Forecaster
John Bradshaw

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MILTON

LATEST REPORTS FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS HURRICANE MILTON WITH 185 MPH WINDS.  CURRENTLY MILTON IS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING EAST AT 10MPH. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 897 MB.  THIS BRINGS HIM CLOSE TO HURRICANE WILMAS LOWEST EVER PRESSURE RECORDED OF 892 MB IN 2005.

MILTON REMAINS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AND MORE INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS HE MAKES HIS WAY TOWARDS THE FLORIDA COAST. HE MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT IF IT UNDERGOES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BUT WILL QUICKY GROW STRONGER AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE NO SHEAR WARM WATER AND NO DRY AIR INTRUSION ENVIRONMENT. ANYONE ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEEDS TO FOLLOW ANY OFFICIAL EVACUATION ORDERS ISSUED BY LOCAL GOV AGENCIES. THIS IS NOT A STORM TO BE PLAYED WITH JUST GET OUT OF ITS WAY.

...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE EAST COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY KIND OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...OUTLOOK...

DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEVISTATING HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECT TO IMPACE THE WEST CENTRAL COAST AND INLAND AREAS OF FLORID AROUND THE TAMPA AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AROUND TAMPA.

STORM SURGE COULD REACH OVER 15 FT IN THE TAMPA AREA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING AND AREA FLOODING FROM MORE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA.

 

...ACTIVE PUBLIC WEATHER ADVISORIES...

HYRDOLOGY DIVISION HAS ISSUED STO #599 FOR FLOODING ISSUES 

FORT MEYERS LOCAL OFFICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE ALERT AND A TROPICAL STORM ALERT 

MORE ALERTS AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS THE HURRICANE DRAWS NEAR