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Severe Thunderstorm Advisory #2133

USA Weather — Severe Weather Division

Issued
May 21 at 2:13 PM MDT
Expires
May 21 at 10:00 PM MDT
Forecasters
Wyatt Huber
States Included
Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
Counties Included
Cheyenne, Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, Sherman, Stanton, Stevens, Thomas, Wallace, Wichita, Colfax, Harding, Union, Cimarron, Texas, Dallam, Hansford, Hartley, Hutchinson, and Moore
Cities Included
Bird City, Saint Francis, Wheeler, Hickok, Ulysses, Horace, Tribune, Unified Government of Greeley County (balance), Coolidge, Kendall, Syracuse, Deerfield, Lakin, Elkhart, Richfield, Rolla, Edson, Goodland, Kanorado, Big Bow, Johnson, Manter, Hugoton, Moscow, Brewster, Sharon Springs, Wallace, Weskan, Leoti, Selkirk, Maxwell, Raton, Springer, Mills, Roy, Solano, Amistad, Capulin, Clayton, Des Moines, Folsom, Gladstone, Grenville, Hayden, Sedan, Seneca, Boise City, Felt, Kenton, Keyes, Adams, Baker, Eva, Goodwell, Guymon, Hardesty, Hooker, Hough, Mouser, Optima, Texhoma, Tyrone, Conlen, Dalhart, Kerrick, Texline, Ware, Bernstein, Gruver, Hitchland, Morse, Spearman, Hartley, Pringle, Stinnett, Cactus, Dumas, Etter, Masterson, Sunray, and Stratford
People Affected
92,575
Max Hail Size
2 in
Wind Gusts
70 mph

...SUMMARY...SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES, IN ADDITION TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A WARM AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUPORTING MLCAPE TO RISE INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.



...HAZARDS...
...PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES...20%...
...PROBABILITY OF INTENSE TORNADOES (EF-2+)...<5%...
...PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND...30%...
...PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS (> 75 MPH)...20%...
...PROBABILITY OF HAIL...40%...
...PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL (> 3 INCHES)...30%...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...REMEMBER...THIS ADVISORY MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL USA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE ALERTS.

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