Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

USA Weather — Severe Weather Division

This outlook is expired and is no longer valid.

Issued
12:25Z Thu, Sep 8
Valid
12Z Fri, Sep 9 - 12Z Sat, Sep 10
Forecaster
Wyatt Huber

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN US...

...SUMMARY...

A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAILSTONES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 

...SOUTHEAST...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA OR WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AT THE SURFACE, A 1005 TO 1008 MB LOW WITH POTENTIALLY AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, AND PROGRESS NORTHWESTWARD. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INLAND WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE, AND A WEAK LLJ IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

OVERALL DESTABALIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE COMPARED TO NORMAL SUMMERTIME CAPE VALUES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. SBCAPE VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 JKG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH STRONG FORCING FROM THE SURFACE BOUDNARY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A 25-35KT LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, PROVIDING BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF SIMILAR VALUES. 0-1KM SRH OF 100-250 IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE TRIPLE POINT AND THE WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED MINISUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A FEW WEAKER TORNADOES MAY RESULT. IN ADDITION, COOLER THAN AVERAGE 700 AND 500MB HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SMALL HAILSTORMS WITH A FEW LARGE HAILSTONES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING OUTFLOW/DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.